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As I See It 7-23-15
Publish Date: Thursday, 23 July, 2015
All across America, ranchers and farmers are looking over their shoulder at the weather and listening to the weather reports in earnest. Dr. Art Douglas of Creighton University just came out with his extended weather outlook from July through September, 2015. It looks good as the moisture market has improved in some areas, not all, but in many of them, it has improved.
Dr. Douglas has been with Creighton University, Omaha, Nebraska, for many years and has been more accurate than most in his extended weather outlook predictions. The one that he put out last week is very interesting. He says that El Nino conditions continue to strengthen in the Pacific and that NOAA and ECMWF models all indicate a strong peak by late fall. It appears this El Nino will approach the strength of the mega El Niños in 1982 and 1997 worldwide, with strong effects in India, northern China, and Australia. In the United States, a fairly cool summer into the Midwest is expected, which is a classic El Nino response. Across western and central Canada, El Nino-induced drought conditions that have been critical. In the Atlantic, strong trade winds have cooled the waters off West Africa, and a strong subtropical flow out of the Pacific is hindering tropical storm development. This pattern will continue through the summer and fall.
For the next three months, a ridge of high pressure should dominate the far northeastern Pacific. This will force storms north into Alaska and the Pacific Northwest while western Canada will remain warm and dry. Downstream a trough will persist from the Great Lakes into the mid Mississippi Valley.
The temperature outlook for July looks below average in the eastern and northeastern United States while it looks above average in the Pacific Northwest from mid Montana through Washington down through California and west from there.
The precipitation looks like it's going to be fairly dry in the northwest into California in July this year, and the temperature outlook is going to be above average from central Montana west into and including northern California through September.
All in all, there's quite a lot of forage that has grown in most areas, but there are areas of Canada and the West and the Southwest where they don't have very much growth for winter feed at the present time. Some areas are getting good moisture, and if continued warm weather ensues, they should grow quite a little feed in the next three months. We all hope it's going to happen that way, don't we?
The cattle market, because of these facts, stays strong. There is excellent demand worldwide for American beef, pork, and lamb. Lamb especially in the northeastern part of the United States stays strong. Nearly 80% of the lamb that are fed in numbers are consumed within 180 miles of New York so you see there's a pretty good demand for these lambs.
The sheep market we report here in the 'Reporter stays strong, I mean really strong. A lot of these good lambs are in the $200 to $230 range per cwt. Calves have been in that kind of a figure for some time, but the demand now appears to be for the grinding meat. Killer cows, killer bulls, oh boy! are they selling well, the best that anyone can remember. Many of the cows are in that $90 to $140 range, and many of these top bulls are in the $110 to $145 per cwt range. You can read the reports in this paper each week, and it will show you that these cull cattle are bringing a lot of money and probably will continue so because grinding meat is in high demand at all levels across the world, and the United States is no exception.
There is some difference in the hay conditions across the North American continent. Two years ago, America was going to Canada to buy hay and truck it down. This year, Canada is very dry. They are coming to the United States and buying hay and shipping it north. The demand for hay probably is going to continue to be strong. That, coupled with the fact that they're getting some rain in the South will indicate that the cow business is here to stay pretty strong. The demand for replacement cattle and grass cattle and feeding cattle continues strong.
Be happy that you're in the cattle business. It's one of the best businesses going across America today. Enjoy it. It's our turn. Thank the Lord for all He helps us with.

We have included the charts that Dr. Douglas released with his extended weather predictions. You can see what kind of precipitation he is predicting for your area.  Remember, this particular man has been quite accurate in the past.
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